Gotthard axis trend scenario

Brugger + Partner conducted an analysis for the Federal Office for Spatial Development (ARE) to evaluate the potential impacts of the new Gotthard and Ceneri base tunnels on spatial and transport dynamics. Using a trend scenario, the study provided a qualitative assessment of the potential impacts on the cantons of Uri and Ticino. It drew on existing statistics, previous studies, expert opinions, and Brugger + Partner's own interpretations. The findings suggest increased passenger transport, particularly for weekend and day trips, along with a shift in the modal split in favour of rail transport. Spatially, the new Gotthard axis is expected to amplify the concentration of economic activities in central, well-connected locations. The extent to which peripheral areas will benefit depends on regional actors' ability to leverage the enhanced accessibility for entrepreneurial opportunities.